Credit Default Swaps on Steroids: UBS's Willow Fund
(Jan 2014)
We previously published a working paper on how investors in Oppenheimer's Champion Income Fund lost 80% in 2008 when peer group funds lost about 25%. Our Champion Income Fund paper is available on our website. Oppenheimer had increased Champion Income Fund's exposure to CMBS through credit default swaps and total return swaps in 2007 and 2008. Figure 1 reproduces a figure from our 2010 paper which demonstrates that the leverage Oppenheimer took on through the swaps fully explained the...
Monte Carlo Simulation, Explained
(Nov 2013)
Valuing products with exotic derivatives can be difficult since these products typically have complex payoff formulas. One of the most flexible methods for valuing such products is called Monte Carlo simulation. At SLCG, we use Monte Carlo simulation in a lot of our work, so we thought it would be helpful to explain a bit about it and show how it can be used to estimate the future returns of an asset.
The basic idea behind Monte Carlo simulation is to determine the statistical properties...
Athlete-Backed Securities and Credit Risk
(Nov 2013)
The financial media has been abuzz about Fantex, a brokerage firm that is offering investments linked to the earnings of professional athletes. Their first offering was linked to 20% of the future earnings of Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, and the second was for a 10% interest in the future earnings of San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis.*At first, the plan was met with some skepticism (and some ridicule), which was only magnified when last Sunday both Foster and Davis...
Structured Product Fees and Credit Risk
(Nov 2013)
Kevin Dugan noted in the April edition of Bloomberg's Structured Notes Brief that "Citigroup collected the highest average fees in the first quarter [of 2013] among the 10 biggest underwriters of U.S. structured notes." This got us wondering, is there any relationship between the credit quality of the underwriter and the fees the underwriter collects? If investors truly understood credit risk, issuers with higher credit risk would presumably have to structure products with lower fees to...
Risk Retention in Collateralized Loan Obligations
(Sep 2013)
Last week we covered the SEC's proposed risk retention rules for securitized assets such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and mortgage backed securities (MBS). One of the reasons why these types of structured deals are so complex is because they are divided into many different securities, called 'tranches,' with different levels of risk. We explained tranching in our post, What is a CDO, Anyway?
The new proposed rules require sponsors of securitizations to keep at least 5% of each...
Cat Bonds and Contamination Risk
(Aug 2013)
Many pension funds have struggled to achieve sufficient return on their investments in the current low interest rate environment. Some have begun investing in insurance-linked securities, particularly catastrophe ('cat') bonds. You can find our primer on insurance-linked securities on our blog post, "The Basics of Insurance Linked Securities"; essentially, insurance companies issue cat bonds to transfer the risk of catastrophic losses to investors, meaning cat bond investors suffer losses in...
Structured CD with an Exotic Embedded Option
(Aug 2013)
In the past few months, we have constructed a database of thousands of structured certificates of deposit (CDs). We have analyzed and evaluated hundreds of these CDs and have compiled these results into a recently completed study . Our results indicate that structured CDs are usually issued at significant discounts to face-value (comparable to structured products), offer little if any market exposure and are often less valuable than contemporaneously issued fixed rate CDs.
We've recently come...
Misrepresentation of Asset Quality in RMBS
(Jul 2013)
Investors in Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) have suffered tremendous losses since 2007. Many junior and mezzanine investors were wiped out by the asset pools' delinquency rates coupled with the subordination embedded in these structured securities. Since then, there has been a proliferation of litigation alleging that the underwriters and originators of RMBS misrepresented the risks of these products. An interesting new paper by Professors Piskorski and Witkin of Columbia...
Similar Structured Product Premia in US and Europe
(Jul 2013)
One point we've made again and again in our research is that structured products -- debt securities with market-contingent payoffs -- tend to be priced at a premium to face value. We have documented premia in reverse convertibles, autocallables, absolute return barrier notes, principal-protected notes, dual directionals, and over 17,000 individual products freely available in our searchable structured product database.
Recently, the SEC has required structured product issuers to disclose an...
Structured Investments Linked to Proprietary Indices
(Jun 2013)
Structured products are often linked to well known indices like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but recently it has become more and more common for banks to issue structured investments linked to proprietary indices that they create themselves. The use of proprietary indices (also known as 'self-indexing') has begun to arouse suspicion from various sources and so we thought we'd take a step back and talk about the issue for a moment.
Structured products linked to well-known...
