YES Strategies: Know to say no
(May 2019)
In recent years, low yields in the bond market and low volatility in the equity markets have combined to give brokerage firms the excuse to develop and sell "Yield Enhancement Strategies (YES)" to retail investors. These strategies almost always consist of selling options on the S&P 500. The sale of an option garners a premium but places the seller (the retail investor) in a short option position. Being short on a call or put option is a risky place to be. In the best-case scenario, the...
Investors "Strangled" by LJM Preservation and Growth Fund (LJMIX)
(Feb 2018)
The stock market began the month of February on a roller-coaster. During the 6 trading days from Friday, February 2nd to Friday, February 9th, the Dow Jones Industrials had intraday swings of at least 330 points each day. On four of those six days the Dow incurred 1,000 point swings.
Amidst the dramatic market swings two weeks ago, the LJM Preservation and Growth Fund stands out. The Fund plummeted over 80% (from a price of $10.34 to $1.94) in two days. See Figure 1.
Figure 1. LJM Preservation...
Puerto Rico Municipal Bond Returns and Sunspots
(Apr 2017)
Introduction
Economists use a statistical procedure called regression analysis to determine whether there is a relationship between economic variables. For example, a labor economist might use regression analysis to determine whether there is a relationship between salaries and education after controlling for differences in job tenure and geographic region. An antitrust economist might use regression analysis to determine whether an attempted collusion in the airline industry effected prices...
A Bad Broker Found His Firm; You Should Avoid Them Both
(Jun 2016)
In June 2016, a FINRA panel in Albuquerque, NM ordered Centaurus Financial, Inc. to pay the Claimant, a recent widow when the subject conduct began, $150,000 plus all hearing fees after reasoned findings that "the investments Hashemian recommended while at Centaurus were not suitable", that Centaurus was responsible for Hashemian's actions which "constituted fraudulent and negligently made misrepresentation and omitted material information in the sale of investments" and that "Centaurus...
Why Citigroup Paid the SEC $180 Million Over MAT/ASTA
(Aug 2015)
I. Introduction
This week Citigroup paid $180 million to the SEC to settle allegations that Citigroup improperly sold high risk hedge funds known as MAT, ASTA and Falcon. The SEC Order is available to view online.
The SEC Order makes clear that Citigroup did not effectively monitor the portfolio manager or the sales force as it sold billions of dollars of high risk MAT ASTA funds with false and misleading sales presentations. In the end, Citigroup lost hundreds of wealthy clients and likely...
Lo que Sabemos hasta Ahora de la Debacle de los Fondos de Bonos UBS Puerto Rico
(Feb 2015)
Durante el último año, hemos posteado alrededor de una docena de artículos cortos en nuestro blog (aquí). Pensamos que sería útil resumir lo que sabemos hasta la fecha. Este resumen está disponible en inglés presionando "In English" en la parte superior de esta página. También tenemos las entradas anteriores relacionadas a UBS Puerto Rico en inglés. Todas estas entradas pueden ser halladas aquí.
Nuestro artículo Peligro en la Isla del Encanto: Inversionistas de UBS Puerto Rico Sufren...
Structured Product Based Variable Annuites are Riskier Than Advertised
(Feb 2014)
My colleagues and I have a paper in the current (Winter 2014) Journal of Retirement about structured product based variable annuities (spVAs), which are variable annuities with index-linked accounts that have a payoff similar to structured products. We have been following the market for spVAs since they were first introduced in 2010, and distributed our first working paper in 2011. Since then, three issuers have sold more than $3 billion worth of spVAs, according to a recent article in...
Monte Carlo Simulation, Explained
(Nov 2013)
Valuing products with exotic derivatives can be difficult since these products typically have complex payoff formulas. One of the most flexible methods for valuing such products is called Monte Carlo simulation. At SLCG, we use Monte Carlo simulation in a lot of our work, so we thought it would be helpful to explain a bit about it and show how it can be used to estimate the future returns of an asset.
The basic idea behind Monte Carlo simulation is to determine the statistical properties...
Variable Annuity Fees Linked to the VIX -- Part II
(Nov 2013)
In our last post, we discussed a whitepaper that proposed linking the fees in a variable annuity to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). That paper ran a simple backtest of a variable annuity fee tied to the VIX over the period from 1990-2012, assuming certain parameters, and then compared the result to a fixed fee annuity over the same period. We have replicated their approach between January 1990 and January 2013 and found that not only are the fees and ending account values comparable, but so...
Variable Annuity Fees Linked to the VIX -- Part I
(Nov 2013)
We've discussed the CBOE Volatility Index -- known as the VIX-- many times before. Essentially, the VIX is a very complex calculation of the expected future variance of the S&P 500 (see the full calculation methodology), and is popularly known as the 'investor fear gauge'. The VIX is not a tradeable asset, but there are VIX options and futures contracts, and those contracts serve as the basis for several VIX-related exchange-traded products (TVIX, XIV, VXXto name a few). The VIX is very...
