Reverse Convertibles and Event Risk
(Jun 2013)
Reverse convertibles are short-term debt securities issued by banks whose return of principal at maturity is contingent upon the returns of the linked stock. Although these notes typically pay relatively high coupons, they expose investors to losses on the underlying asset, especially if those losses are beyond the trigger level. Academic research shows that these coupons are not adequately compensating the investor for the market risk that they are bearing by investing in the notes. For...
Options Strategies Embedded in Exchanged Traded Products
(May 2013)
In theory, exchange traded products (ETPs) can be linked to almost any underlying asset, including derivatives. While many ETPs are linked to portfolios of bonds or stocks, some are linked to portfolios of futures contracts, which we have discussed at length before. Bill Luby at VIX and More has written a couple posts on ETPs that are linked to portfolios of options, which are gaining some traction with investors. As usual, we greatly enjoyed Bill's posts and thought we'd explain some of the...
Persistence and Mean Reversion in VIX Rolling Futures Indexes
(Mar 2013)
In our last post we followed up on Jason Voss's discussion of the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence or mean reversion in market data. We compared the Hurst exponents of the S&P 500 to that of the VIX index, and found that the S&P 500 is largely a random signal (Hurst exponent near 0.5) but that the VIX exhibits characteristics of a 'switching' or mean reverting signal (a Hurst exponent between 0 and 0.5).
Much has been made of VIX mean reversion in the financial blogosphere. One idea...
Evolution of Absolute Return Structured Products
(Feb 2013)
From 2006 to 2009, a type of structured product known as an absolute return barrier note (ARBN) was issued by a variety of major investment banks. ARBNs are interesting because they are linked to the absolute value of the return on an underlying, not just its return, and therefore are considered non-directional bets. We've done a lot of work on ARBNs here at SLCG, including a research paper that values a sample of ARBNs and finds they are worth on average 4.5% less than their purchase price...
Structured CDs: The Big Picture
(Feb 2013)
This week we have reviewed some of the issues surrounding structured certificates of deposit, giving an introduction, example offering documents (both simple and complex), the basics of FDIC insurance of these products, and a description of some of the tax implications investors should be aware of. We hope we have conveyed our reasons for thinking that structured CDs are complex and risky investments that, like structured products, are rarely suitable for retail investors.
But there is a...
Tax Consequences of Market-Linked CD Investing
(Feb 2013)
On this last day of structured CDs week here on the SLCG blog, we're going to discuss the tax consequences of investing in market-linked CDs (or structured CDs). We should probably start a blog post on taxes with a general disclaimer that we are not tax professionals and you should consult a tax professional or CPA before making an investment decision based upon tax consequences.
That being said, taxes are a pretty complicated issue for structured CDs. As mentioned earlier this week,...
So How Complicated Can Structured CDs Get?
(Feb 2013)
We could tell you that the last time we went fishing we caught a fish that was THIS BIG (motions with outstretched arms), but you probably wouldn't believe us unless we showed you. We wanted to take this opportunity to show some examples of truly complex structured certificates of deposit that have been constructed in recent months and years.
Let's take a look at JP Morgan's August 2012 fifteen year "Callable Variable Rate Range Accrual CDs Linked to 6-Month USD LIBOR and the S&P 500 Index"...
FDIC Insurance and Structured CDs
(Feb 2013)
As a continuation of our structured CDs week here on the SLCG blog, today we're going to discuss one of the biggest selling points for these products: FDIC insurance. FDIC insurance mitigates most of the credit risk found in structured products, but it may not be as significant a factor as the marking materials for structured CDs may suggest.
Structured products, the debt analog of structured CDs, are often maligned because of their exposure to credit risk. If the issuer of a structured...
What Does a Simple Structured CD Look Like?
(Feb 2013)
Okay, we've talked a bit about what structured CDs are and why we think they are interesting. But what does a structured CD offering document actually look like? Unfortunately, it isn't possible to find such documents from Bloomberg or the SEC website since structured CDs are not registered securities. However, you can often find offering documents using Google. For example, as a relatively simple equity-linked CD, we're going to take a look at the "Global Opportunity Certificate of Deposit...
Structured Certificates of Deposit Week
(Feb 2013)
Over the past several months, we have noticed more and more bank deposits that resemble structured products. These products go by various names: market-linked certificates of deposit, equity-linked certificates of deposit, contingent interest certificates of deposits, etc. For parsimony, we refer to these types of products as "structured CDs" or simply "SCDs".
We think structured CDs are a very significant development, as they can be designed to provide highly complex exposure, are almost...
